(Want to drop me a line? Contact me here
I'm bonker99, a private investor and stock market swing trader specialising in technical analysis (TA).
I have been trading the stock market for around eight years with countless hours (trust me!) invested in developing my TA skills.
Over those years it's been suggested to me on a number of occasions that I should set up a site where others can engage with my views on various share charts and possible price pressure pivots etc so this is it.
I've also recently (Xmas 2016) activated my Twitter account and you can find me there @bonker99
Hopefully, you will find something useful here with respect to your own trading or investments but please acknowledge that anything expressed by myself or others here is just personal opinion and is not to be taken as advice of any kind whatsoever. Always do your own research, look for multiple sources for your information, be instinctively cynical and constructively critical and you're on your way.
The site is new as of the end of January 2017 and is currently just a repository for charts and blogs of course but I`ll certainly be looking at adding other features to the site as time allows.
On that point, please note that this site will always be about giving the user base what they want (if I can deliver it), i.e. which charts get added or updated and how often, what blogs go onto the site, what functionality and features are available to users etc. I`ve got my own ideas of course but I`m more than willing to listen to yours too. The objective of this site will be to serve you guys and gals as opposed to you serving somebody else's interests as is the case with some of the appalling sites that currently exist out there.
As an independent
guy you`ll always get my honest thoughts on what I think about a chart/share without me being swayed by having other interests such as running a large public user chat forum chock full of professional de/rampers aiming to influence what you do with your money. Whether you`re a swing trader, a longer term investor or just someone looking to nail an exit from the latest AIM Pump & Dump, I hope you`ll find something of use on this site.
Feel free to register if you like - you'll need to be registered to:
- View charts updated in the last 0 days
- Make a request for a chart to be added or updated on the site
- Add shares/charts to your own Watchlist to be emailed instant notifications of updated charts
- See my #b99Picks chart picks and receive instant email notifications of new additions to that list
Thanks for visiting and good luck with your trading :)
What is the objective of this site?
Well hopefully it will give people another/alternative view into the insane world of the stock market in contrast to what some stock market companies tell them and the 99.9% of garbage espoused on the public "chat" sites.
The site is 18 months old now (end of July 2018), how has it progressed?
It's come a long way in a very short period of time from my own perspective! Around 500 stock price charts added by request of the user base, A What's Hot? page showing the most popular content and the best/worst movers over up to a 4-week period plus a facility for users to add shares/charts to their own Watchlist where they can be emailed instant notifications of chart updates. The #b99Picks page also represents a warts-and-all presentation of how a broad and mixed portfolio can mitigate risk for you and help you keep control of your exposure to the market with not losing money being priority #1 for anyone new to the game (and everyone else of course!). That virtual portfolio now contains a very large list of over 200 "trades" over 10 months, pretty much a trade per day.The list can be sorted by clicking on the grid headers to see the list in any order you like - particularly useful if you want to see which of the recent picks are moving the right way.
Any future plans?
Yes, lots but getting time to add new stuff is difficult, especially with so many chart requests to fulfil :)
How should people use this site with respect to their own trading?
That is entirely up the individual. Some people trade from technicals alone, some mix technicals with fundamentals and others are fundamentals only.
My own take is to look for companies with a decent fundamentals footing with some likely near-medium term news flow to help drive the SP and to time my entry based on what I think I can see on the chart with respect to that timing and/or entry price although I also mix those plays with some complete unknown plays too based purely on the chart setup. I typically aim to hold for a number of months but everyone is different and what works for some won't work for others of course. I generally avoid the classic spikey AIM Pump & Dump nonsense that gets all the attention on the public "chat" sites as I'm not one for buying into a share only to see my money halved the next day but I think if people apply an 80/20 rule prioritising solid companies over the other nonsense then that's ok too and it helps keep you
interested while you wait for the "proper" shares to move.
Has the new site changed how you trade yourself?
Well, actually, yes it has and that came as a complete surprise to me. I gain sight of so many share charts now that it's *relatively* easy for me to pick something out that looks like it may be about to do some business to the upside (I never short by the way) and it just never occured to me that it would turn out that way when kicking this off just a few months ago. What also came as a surprise is people willing to put their own time into contributing some seriously high quality blogs to the site (my own tend to be less pretty lol) which is a real bonus for the site and the user base.
You refer to yourself as a "Swing Trader", what does that mean exactly?
The term "Swing Trader" is most closely associated with very short term trading, typically on things like forex but that's not my game. Primarily, I look for a decent looking technical pivot on a chart and try and judge on entry where I think the odds are in my favour of seeing limited downside and, possibly, a much larger upside over a given holding period of, say, 2-4 months.
Almost all of these "picks" (see the #b99Picks page) are done with no knowledge of the company whatsoever so that obviously adds risk for me but overall I do OK I think as the #b99Picks page shows that I maintained a positive balance/ROI even during/after a terrible market reset during 2018 H1. If you have knowledge of a company I choose to pick and you think it may do well yourself then *perhaps* it's worth taking note of when I pick it but nothing is guaranteed of course, I get them dead wrong from time to time too, just like everyone else.
How anyone operating such an MO manages their portfolio is up to them of course as you must know when you've got them wrong and be willing to cut your losses pretty sharpish to maintain your profit levels. Likewise, you must be willing to let your winners run, to a certain extent at least whilst, crucially, be willing to sell at a decent profit level per trade or at least implement a trailing stop loss as the share moves up to lock in your profit should it suddenly dive on you.
There are no hard and fast rules here and you must understand that, I'm simply playing a percentage game. Much of it comes down to hard-won experience of knowing when something has likely topped out or is likely to go completely t*ts on you but as things stand and as I type this (July 2018), my #b99Picks averages show that anything dropping more than around 20% from the entry price *could be* a real dog whilst anything at 40%+ profit is *possibly* ripe for banking but again, there are no hard and fast rules here. It should, however, go without saying that there are many times more +40% trades around than +100% trades and trying to "force" every trade to be a +100% bagger will, in most cases, see your profits evaporate in front of your eyes so don't be greedy and learn to live with the "cost" of selling out too early. It doesn't bother me one iota to bank 40% on a share that goes on to do 100% as there's always another trade around the corner. That's
just the luck of the draw and this is very much a game of a bird in the hand (banked) is
worth two in the bush (paper profit)!
You must also understand that this MO (as I implement it myself) is about having a significant numbers of trades running at the same time to both manage your risk in case a share falls to pieces on you and to give you more management control. Few, if any, professional traders will operate with a portfolio of less than half a dozen shares and most will be twice that and the reason for that is as I've outlined - if you don't manage your risk then it's only a matter of (not usually much) time until you blow up and you're out of the game.
What, in your opinion, are the most common mistakes that private investors make in the stock market?
1/ Listening to anything anyone ever says on a public chat site. Most private investors are so out of their depth at this game that it's not even funny. Those that are clued in on those public chat sites are almost always lying to you and are often professional "sock puppets" working inside information on what's coming next and selling while telling you to buy and vice versa.
2/ Mis-reading the "sentiment". Look, shares do fly to multiples of their starting price all the time and many/most PIs usually manage to buy in most of the way to the top which leaves them with little, if any, room for profit taking but there's now a yawning gap from top to bottom that they often ride all the way back down again in the hope that the share will bounce back up again to even higher highs. Sometimes you'll get it right but most times you won't as proven by the horrendous losses most private investors make by getting spiked on a share. If you must play these Pump & Dump "sentiment" plays (almost always faked by multi-ID professionals on said public chat web sites) then for God's sake get in early and be willing to get stopped out if/when they start to fall to pieces.
It's not your job to ride it all the way to the (unknowable) top, it's your job to get into something at the right time and out at a higher level, even if it's "only" a +20% trade.
Heard about something that's going to be a monster? Well if it's already 4x+ bagged from the bottom then ignore it imo, period. Why such a hard line on these types of plays? Because, almost without exception, any share that 4x+ bags within a few days/weeks is almost certainly complete dogshit that will destroy you if you hold onto it for too long and/or mistime your entry. Want to play? Fine, knock yourself out but recognise what you're involved in and act accordingly. Can't tell if it's dogshit or not? OK, let's make it easy then - have they got any money? If not then you can bet your bottom Dollar that it's being ramped sky high to forward sell a tuppence placing to you at 10p (eventually), they're really not that hard to spot if you've done your homework.
3/ Over-trading. A particular problem for newbies and for technical traders like myself as we see every bit of support and resistance. If you can watch all your shares every minute of every trading day then that may help you but quite honestly, I suspect it does more harm than good. The industry wants you to over-trade, that's why shares fly up and down wildly all the time. If you don't have and execute a more rounded view over some months, or at least weeks, then you're making it really hard for yourself and the industry just loves those trading fees you're racking up whilst "market makers" bounce you in/out time after time to your cost and their benefit.
Many (most!) people just don't understand charts, how can they benefit from the site?
Look, Technical Analysis is difficult, there's just no way around that fact and if you're no good with numbers and/or patterns then you've basically got no chance :)
I just happen to be lucky in that respect as I'm very numerate and pretty sharp on spotting patterns (in all areas of life actually, not just share charts, it's just how my own brain works) but then other people can pull a typical company RNS to pieces and distil it down to a somewhat accurate read whereas I can just about tell if it's good or bad so it's horses for courses :)
What I attempt to do is to distil all the noise on a typical chart down into some kind of meaningful pattern in terms of both price movements and timing which, I think, is probably of use to most people out there, not just myself. I could cram 10x more technical information into my charts but I suspect I'd lose 90% of my audience in an instant so I try and strike a balance with a short-medium term view (weeks>months) and with trend/timing lines that attempt to "slice up" the action to give a view of possible support/resistance areas and with specific price shouts up/down where I think they're warranted.
That said, don't think it's just a matter of throwing a few parallel lines around the chart and sticking it out there for people to view. There's a *ton* of stuff going on in the background that I don't put on my charts for the reason given above but I'll refer to specific prices when I think the "invisible" background stuff warrants it, especially if it happens to coincide with one of my trend/timing lines.
In short, the price shouts are absolutely scientifically/mathematically driven but the timing is definitely an art :)
Getting all of this across in a manner that many/most people can get some benefit from does of course make the whole thing 10x more difficult. It really is quite the challenge, especially when you yourself can see all the noise and complexity behind the scenes, to be able to communicate what you think is necessary in a clear and simple enough manner for consumption by the maximum number of people.
So, how can/do other people benefit? Well the proof of that pudding is in the eating of course. Some people will gain absolutely zero benefit from the site or my charts, others will see some benefit while others will see their trading profits/losses changed dramatically for the better.
Why such a distribution of non/benefits? Well that's the human factor isn't it. I'm putting out so much volume on the site that nobody is going to be able to trade them all so the decision on what trades people make will rest with them, as it should do, and in that context some will get more right than others and will benefit more, it's that simple.
If you simply have no idea at all what's going on when looking at any of my charts then the general read is that green lines are good and red lines are bad :)
I tend to use weekly charts rather than daily charts in an attempt to filter out some of the noise so the ideal scenario if you're looking for an entry based on a weekly green support trend line is for the price to dip just below that trend line intra-week but then recover back above it by the Friday close and/or, wait to see if the price continues to make progress the following week. Alternatively, you can just go for it with a price on/just below that trend line and cross your fingers that it bounces for you. Exact same deal in reverse if you're looking for an exit at/above a red resistance trend line of course.
You must also note that generally speaking, closing a week significantly above a red line or below a green line may well flip that line to new support instead of resistance and vice versa and may indicate a very bullish/bearish near-term future.
Finally, if the techy chart view isn't working for you at all then do please read my update notes on the chart picture! Clearly, I can't be accused of being biased at all with over 500 charts on the site, all of which were requested by other people, and all of which I treat with the same straight bat as well as I can each time I update them. I try to be relatively neutral in my wording with a touch of bullish/bearish tone where I see fit according to the chart as I see it but occasionally, I'll be a tad stronger with my tone but whether you choose to take note of that is entirely up to you of course :)
I'll also add any notes I deem relevant to a company on the odd occasion I do actually know something about them but as always you MUST Do Your Own Research and not rely on what I think I know. :)